Giovani Universitari In Parlamento

NATO after Ankara: Why Italy matters more than ever

From Washington to Ankara: a new chapter for the Atlantic Alliance

The NATO Summit in Ankara is likely to be remembered as one of the most far-reaching meetings since the Cold War. While earlier summits were mainly crisis-driven, for example, terrorism after 9/11, and Putin’s aggression of Ukraine, this time there was something different. Allied leaders sought to redefine NATO’s strategy to face great power confrontation, industrial self-reliance, technology rivalry, and the breakdown of geopolitical alliances. Besides pledging to the mutual defence under Article 5, the leaders reflected on the need to maintain the capacity of the national defence industry and develop vital infrastructure; protect the supply of resources through critical paths and the whole chain of production; keep technological innovation as a leading factor; and see how closely EuroAtlantic security is linked up with changes in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, Africa, and the Indo-Pacific region.

In this way, the Ankara Summit stands for more than just perpetuating NATO’s existing role in the West; instead, it is marking the transition and development of a much broader security understanding. In this new context security also means military deterrence with economic strength, industrial power, technological independence, and geopolitical leverage.

Concerning Italy, these changes offer a special chance to step up. While Europe’s other NATO allies are still turning their eyes mostly towards the East, Italy has always been a gateway between different cultural realms: Europe, North Africa, the Mediterranean Sea and the Middle East region.

Bringing back the Southern Flank

Until recently, NATO’s discussions about the Alliance were dominated by crises related to its eastern frontiers. But, this time there was growing awareness that problems coming from NATO’s Southern Flank were quite serious and required a strategic shift. In fact, conflict in North Africa, the gradual erosion of stability in the Sahel countries, maritime insecurity, cyberattacks and the rise in influence of Russia and China on the African continent pose direct threats to the security and interests of Europe.

From this point of view, Rome has consistently championed this agenda. Regardless of their political affiliations, the Italian governments have always maintained the view that NATO’s security environment goes a lot further than Eastern Europe. The talks in Ankara seem to indicate that this view has really found many supporters among NATO members. Per the studies by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), the NATO summit marks a significant turning point in the effort to address the issues of the Southern Flank not on the periphery but within the comprehensive strategic planning of the Alliance.

This change carries huge value that ought not be ignored at all. It is a clear endorsement of Italian diplomacy, while it demonstrates that the Alliance’s perception of security challenges in the Mediterranean region is now evolving.

Ankara must have been the most obvious political scene to have revealed the strengthening of the European dimension of NATO. Such a feature does not suggest that the transatlantic bond might be getting weaker. Actually, the USA is likely to remain the major power behind NATO.

The Declaration from the Ankara summit put emphasis on defence expenditure, capability improvement, industry cooperation, and shared burden. Such themes resonate with the European Union’s ongoing programs directed at boosting production capacities in defence sectors and building strategic resilience as well. A number of experts have called the new setup a sort of “Europeanization” of NATO, not with a formal change, but from the viewpoint of assigning military duties to different regions and producing military capabilities.

Italy could see a huge windfall from the current turn of events. Italy belongs to NATO and EU as one of the pioneering countries, and also one of Europe’s leaders in the production of defence equipment. Italy could be the ideal candidate to become a connector for the realization of European strategic plans and the execution of operations required by NATO.

One key outcome from the Ankara Summit was the emphasis placed on strengthening alliances through increased investment in their own capabilities, which was one of the reasons NATO decided to highlight military effectiveness as a means of securing peace and stability. In particular, the war in Ukraine has demonstrated how the reliance of countries on Western defence supply chains was an illusion. Bearing all this in mind, the summit at Ankara was a turning point as it laid more weight on manufacturing capacity, restocking innovation, and defence industries cooperation.

Italy appears particularly well positioned. The rising level of Italy’s defences to the global stage is also helped by what its national industry offers: a diverse range of products and services related to modern warfare like advanced technologies, electronic equipment and cyber warfare. Companies like Leonardo, Fincantieri, and MBDA contribute not only to capability development of the European defence but also to the international defence sectors.

In particular, Leonardo has developed as one of the most prominent European companies producing aerospace and defence products and Fincantieri remains one of the globally prominent manufacturers of naval vessels.

Mediterranean Dimension

A further significant development of the Ankara Summit is the increasing awareness of the strategic importance of the Mediterranean. The Mediterranean simultaneously serves as an energy corridor, a migration route and a geopolitical crossroads. In recent years, there has been a growing conflict over the area. The Kremlin has exerted influence in the area of Libya and Syria. China continues to increase economic and infrastructural ties all over North Africa. Also, countries in the Gulf, and other neighboring areas like Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been implementing increasingly assertive external policies.

Against the background mentioned above, Italy holds a distinctive position. The country’s location enables Rome to be the hub of engagement with the region that no other ally can offer. The Alliance’s increased attention devoted to resilience, partnerships in the surrounding area, and security of the Southern Flank shall automatically enhance Italy’s strategic roles.

Italy as a mediator

Inasmuch as Italian armed forces and industry remain the country’s core sources of influence, Italy’s diplomacy is perhaps its most underestimated asset. To effectively manage the Alliance, the member countries have to make an effort to find a compromise solution between the political and the military. That is why the diplomatic dimension is of major importance. Italy has been regarded as an outstanding country for forging coalitions as well as pursuing pragmatic diplomacy. Contrary to some of its NATO allies, a feature distinguishing Italian diplomacy is the dialogue, mediation, and finding of a compromise way to a solution even among adversaries.

The challenge of strategic credibility

Opportunities are not without responsibilities. In order for Italy to change its favourable geographic location into lasting influence, it needs to tackle some structural problems. There has been a significant change in Italy’s pattern of military expenditures with an increasing share of the public budget spent on defense. But, the pressure is still high as the country has to make decisions on modernizing the military, deciding procurement of the new equipment and making long term investment commitments.

Projects in the areas of defense and infrastructure regularly get hit with administrative hurdles, and have to be navigated through an unpredictable political environment. In a way, Italy’s strength derives from its ability to simultaneously participate in European, American transatlantic, and Mediterranean cooperation systems. The ability of Italy to be at the same time a key player in Europe and part of a transatlantic cooperation, will only be kept if political leaders take this as a constant and continuous task to accomplish.

Ankara and the future of European security

The summit of Ankara represented the emergence of a European contribution to collective security being more developed. On this platform, Italy is in some ways, the perfect candidate.

Much of what Rome has been trying to achieve has been recognized recently as being very important to a successful partnership. Among the matters brought up were: the need for more focus on the Mediterranean as a region of strategic importance; an improved understanding of Southern Flank security concerns; greater cooperation between defense companies; and lastly, the need for the European members of NATO to be more active and responsible.

The question is if Italy can maintain these favorable geopolitical circumstances, which has become an increasing issue of international politics. Still, one conclusion seems harder to ignore: as we move from a Cold War situation into one that is dominated by tons of threats with which an alliance like NATO has never been faced before, one thing that has become quite clear is that Italy is no longer one merely a member of the Alliance but also one of its core actors.

Critics say that Italy continues to allocate only a small amount when it comes to the expenditure on defense, and that the internal political chaos could lead to a failure of strategic thinking for the future. Still, the meeting in Ankara indicates that location advantages and production capacities might be sufficient to even make up for these basic deficiencies.

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